Adoption of new price caps in the electricity market

Decision made. What does it mean for the market and consumers?

On 15 January 2026, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine adopted Resolution No. 395, recommending that NEURC urgently review and establish maximum prices in the electricity market — for the day-ahead market, intraday market, and balancing market — in the night and day zones at the level of the evening peak zone until the end of the 2025/26 autumn-winter period.

NEURC responded promptly: this evening, an urgent session was held, and the corresponding decision was adopted.

Thus, from 17 January to 31 March 2026, the following price caps will apply:

Day-ahead market and intraday market:

• Maximum price cap — UAH 15,000/MWh
• Minimum price cap — UAH 10/MWh

Balancing market:

• Maximum price cap — UAH 16,000/MWh
• Minimum price cap — UAH 0.01/MWh

The new maximum prices will be applied starting with the delivery day of 18 January.

What does this mean?

• It is likely that electricity imports will enter the market — the economic conditions for this have been created.
• Whether this will solve the problem systematically will depend on practice.

However, a key issue remains unresolved.

We are again operating in a situation where, at the state level, an emergency in the energy sector is declared, but from the point of view of market calculations and responsibilities, the rules applied are designed for “normal” peacetime conditions.

In other words, we have a situation that is difficult to explain to both the market and consumers: the emergency seems to exist — but not for everyone and not in all respects.

Regarding consumer prices

It is important to understand that a price cap itself is not a direct consumer price. The final cost of electricity is formed from several components — the market price, imbalance settlements, transmission and distribution tariffs, and the commercial terms of contracts.

At the same time, raising the maximum prices changes the market pricing environment. In a period of deficit, this means that the purchase price for suppliers rises, and therefore the risk of higher prices for industrial consumers objectively increases.

Thus, the key issue now is not only the price caps themselves…